智能化如何提高地区能源效率?——基于中国省级面板数据的实证检验

“十四五”规划指出,要深入实施智能制造和绿色制造工程,推动制造业高端化、智能化、绿色化,使能源资源配置更加合理、利用效率大幅提高。目前,中国制造业存在能耗高、污染严重等问题,在智能化发展迅猛的时代背景下,深入探究其对能源效率的影响机制,实现智能能源、智慧能源的目标,有着重要意义。本文采用2004-2016年中国省级平衡面板数据,使用静态和动态面板模型分析智能化对能源效率的影响,并研究技术创新、环境规制和外商直接投资的调节作用。得到的结论如下:(1)智能化促进能源效率,即增加绿色全要素能源效率、降低能源消耗;(2)随着技术创新水平提高,智能化对能源效率的提升作用加强;(3)环境规制加速智能化对能源效率的正向作用;(4)随着外商直接投资增加,智能化更加促进能源效率;(5)不同地区智能化对能源效率的作用不同,西部地区智能化的作用最弱,但调节作用最大。政府和企业要通过提高技术创新、完善环境规制和合理使用外商直接投资等方式来应用智能化技术,提高能源效率。     

中国城镇家庭能源贫困评估*——基于微观调查数据的研究

我国扶贫工作重点已进入新阶段,从消除绝对贫困向缓解发展不平衡、不充分的相对贫困转变,从解决收入贫困向解决多维贫困转变,从重点解决农村贫困问题向统筹城乡扶贫转变。能源是人民生活质量的重要指标,能有效反映福利水平。了解我国城镇家庭能源消费的基本特征、准确测度能源贫困水平与分布,有助于为今后扶贫工作提供资料基础和科学管理依据。本文构建消费者能源消费决策分析框架,并运用第一次中国家庭能源消费调查数据,考察居民收入与能源消费之间的关系,并对中国城镇家庭能源贫困状况进行测度。研究发现,居民收入与能源消费之间存在S型非线性关系,能源价格、家庭特征、地域特征等因素在能源消费决策中都发挥重要影响。我国城镇家庭相对能源贫困较为严重,主要表现为能源可支付性问题。能源贫困率在20%左右,其中电力贫困程度更为严重,超过25%。家庭收入增长、户主受教育程度提高、城市电力基础设施的普及、城市环境规制水平的提升会显著降低城镇家庭陷入能源贫困的可能性,而电力价格上涨会显著增加城镇家庭陷入能源贫困的概率。     

终极控制人特征和创业导向关系的实证研究——市场化进程的调节作用

以中国创业板上市公司为样本,探讨了市场化进程对终极控制人特征与企业创业导向间关系的调节作用。层次回归分析结果发现:整体强度方面,非国有企业比国有企业具有更强的创业导向,终极控制人存在两权分离的企业的创业导向比不存在两权分离的企业更强;选择倾向方面,国有企业和存在终极控制人两权分离的企业更倾向于选择资产增值型创业导向;市场化进程负向调节终极控制人特征与创业导向选择倾向的关系,这说明市场化进程的提高可在一定程度上缓解终极控制人创业导向选择中的代理问题。     

2019年国际大石油公司经营业绩与战略动向

2019年,虽然油气产量稳步增长,但是受经济下行、国际油气价格下跌影响,炼厂开工率与油品销售量双降,国际大石油公司的经营业绩由升转降。国际大石油公司因势利导主动调整发展策略,采取多种举措增储上产、稳定收入,持续在资源优势区域和需求高增长区域优化产业链布局,通过提升海外经营资产集中度、优化资源配置与组合、获取较低成本油气资源、主动拥抱数字化和智能化等经营策略,提升全产业链价值创造能力,向低碳化、清洁化、数字化综合性能源公司转型。这些动向为中国石油企业拓展业务领域、实现能源转型、提升盈利能力提供了新的思路和机会。     

能源安全新风险与新逻辑：系统韧性的视角——兼论新逻辑下我国能源安全问题与战略思路

天然气和煤炭价格暴涨是当前全球能源危机的新特点。能源危机这一新特点隐含着能源安全风险来源的变化：气候变化与能源转型取代地缘政治成为影响能源安全更重要和更持久因素,尽管后者仍是影响能源安全的重要因素。本文分析了适应能源安全风险新变化的能源安全的理论“逻辑”转变,即从能源供应安全向能源系统韧性的转变,并基于能源系统韧性的逻辑分析了我国能源系统存在的安全隐患,提出了新逻辑下我国能源安全战略的新思路。     

热泵技术应用与电力市场开拓

文章从热泵技术原理、分类以及山西地区热泵应用自然条件和现状出发,选取应用案例对热泵和城市集中供暖的经济性进行比较,说明其在节能减排、经济性方面的优势,指出供电公司在热泵推广应用中可做的工作。     

The rhetorical fantasy of energy transitions: implications for energy policy and analysis

This article explores the rhetoric of four energy transitions. It begins by summarising research on the intersection of fantasy, technology and the sociology of expectation. It then looks at how ideas of progress, modernity, cheapness, abundance and hope influence the way society perceives new energy technologies, causing them to overestimate benefits and underestimate challenges. Our rhetorical analysis finds in case studies of steam engines, gasoline automobiles, hydroelectric dams and nuclear reactors that newly ‘discovered’ sources of energy or newly invented technologies are always assumed to provide infinitely abundant energy and to have the potential to create positive utopian changes in society. We conclude by noting the salient implications of these rhetorical themes for energy planners, analysts and scholars.     

Predictive abilities of speculators in energy markets

Using nonparametric methodology, I find that speculators are successful in taking profitable positions in energy futures markets, although the magnitude of this effect is lower than that found previously for agricultural markets. A plausible explanation for this difference is that price forecasting is more difficult for energy commodities. Moreover, I find that the energy speculators’ returns are due to the existence of the risk premiums rather than to speculators’ forecasting abilities. Futures risk premium is highly time-variant; notably, energy investors’ profits have been very limited in the GFC and post-GFC period, which coincided with the financialization of commodity markets.     

Do country risk and financial uncertainty matter for energy commodity futures?

Using an instrumental variable quantile regression technique, this paper assesses whether country risk and financial uncertainty exert an impact on energy commodity futures prices under different commodity conditional return distributions over the period from January 1994 to July 2017. We also discuss whether the correlations change with different dimensions of country risk, that is economic, financial, and political. The results reveal that country risk and financial stress do have a significant impact on energy commodity returns of futures contracts with different maturities, but their direction, intensity, and significance differ, caused by the distinct market situations and divergent channels of country risk.     

Does economic growth and energy consumption drive environmental degradation in China’s 31 provinces? New evidence from a spatial econometric perspective

The panel data analysis points to economic and social factors contributing to NO_x, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂, and VOCs in China’s 31 provinces. The spatial correlation analysis using Global and Local Moran’s I values indicates the existence of a significant and positive spatial autocorrelation with respect to environment, economy and energy, and the high spatial correlation is evident in the eastern region, covering the northern part of Yangtze River Delta, Huaihai Economic Zone, and the lower reaches of the Yellow River Economic Belt. The empirical estimation is performed through spatial lag and spatial Durbin models. All emitted air pollutants in 31 provinces have significant spatial dependence and strong spillover effects. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between emitted air pollutants (NO_x, PM₁₀, VOCs, and PM_2.5) and per capita GDP, which follows the EKC hypothesis. The relationship between SO₂ and per capita GDP does not follow the EKC hypothesis. There is a positive relationship between pollutant emissions and coal consumption, which is consistent with current studies for various countries like Canada, Denmark, UK and US and regions like New York State. However, the effects of science and technology investment on air pollutants are mostly positive, which is not as policy expected.